Monday 11 February 2013

Stevenage 2-0 Notts County

Profit after 12 bets: £-5.13

I’m now a fiver down, but if I’m honest I actually expected to be further in the pit at this point – having risked £24 (12 £2 bets) and given my own betting record, losing only a fiver is probably at least as good as I would have been with my own picks. Onwards!

Tuesday 5 February 2013

Backing The Draw (Stevenage v Notts Co) @ 3.45

A bit of variety for this League One fixture – instead of backing the home team, this time the bot has gone for the draw.

Lens 2-0 Ajaccio

Home win.

Profit after 11 bets: £-3.14

Friday 1 February 2013

Backing Lens (Lens v Ajaccio GFCO) @ 1.82

We’ve been to Brazil, Russia, Spain – this time we’re off to France.

Atletico 2-1 Sevilla

A narrow win for the favourites in a bad-tempered game. It actually turns out Atletico were such low odds because the market the bot picked was a DRAW NO BET market, not normal Match Odds. Still, 57p profit is 57p profit.

Profit after 10 bets: £-4.70

Thursday 31 January 2013

Backing Atl Madrid (Atl Madrid v Sevilla) @ 1.3

Bit of a hiatus due to busyness, but let’s get back to the action. Oh no, another heavy odds-on home favourite? Bring it on…

Friday 25 January 2013

Dinamo 0-0 Videoton

Another home favourite bites the dust. I may just switch to laying instead of backing...

Thursday 24 January 2013

Backing Dinamo Moscow (Dinamo Moscow v Videoton) @ 1.66

Backing a home favourite again, this time in sunny Russia. Despite the football-heavy selection so far, I am at least getting a tour of the world’s football hotspots.

Sao Paulo 5-0 Bolivar

Easy win for the favourites, netting me a mouthwatering 29p after commission.

Profit after 8 bets: £-3.27

Wednesday 23 January 2013

Backing Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo v Bolivar) @ 1.15

Shortest odds I’ve had so far, in this Brazilian football match. Surely Sao Paulo won’t let me down like McClaren did?

Tuesday 22 January 2013

Baby Dottie loses

No big surprise. I’m actually thinking of writing another bot that does nothing but lay odds-on favourites in horse racing win markets.

Profit after 7 bets: £-3.56

Backing Baby Dottie in the 16:05 at Lingfield @ 1.69

Back to the horsies today, and a heavy favourite at Lingfield. I have zero faith in odds-on horses and won’t be even a tiny bit surprised if it loses. Fingers crossed though!

Monday 21 January 2013

Academica win 2-1

3rd goal came on 82 minutes. Net profit after 6 bets: £-1.56

Backing Under 2.5 Goals (Academica v Nacional) @ 1.88

OK, more football – in Portugal this time. I think it’s time to either loosen the liquidity requirements or bias against football and horse racing otherwise this is going to become a bit repetitive. Hell, even a bit of Australian Open action would be a welcome change.

Saturday 19 January 2013

McClaren fail

0-0 bore draw. Net profit after 5 bets, £0.44

Backing Twente (Twente v Waalwijk) @ 1.36

Another football bet, this time on a huge home favourite. Does Steve McClaren still manage this lot? I'm pretty sure I'd never back one of his teams except by sheer blind random selection, so there's a thing. Kick-off at 19:45.

Friday 18 January 2013

Nimes 3-0 Clermont

Get in.

Profit after 4 bets, net of commission: £2.44

Backing Nimes (Nimes v Clermont) @ 2.4

Bet 4 and we return to football, and the heady heights of France’s Ligue 2. This match is low-profile enough that I can’t find any info about it, but it looks like Nimes lost the corresponding fixture last year. Kick-off is at 7pm.

Thursday 17 January 2013

Syrian loses...

...and normalcy is restored. Randomly picking horses is never going to work.

Profit after 3 bets, net of commission: £-0.54.

Backing Syrian in the 18:30 at Wolverhampton @ 2.1

Another horsie bet. I suppose it’s inevitable that random selections of highly-liquid markets are going to favour horses and football since they are Betfair’s biggest sports, but if I get almost nothing else I will loosen the liquidity requirements a little, or bias the bot slightly against certain sports.

Wednesday 16 January 2013

First winner!

Hey, profit after just the second bet! Didn’t expect that. I didn’t watch the race live but I watched the market on my phone and it looked like an exciting one – Seventh Sign seemed in contention for most of the race, then faded out to odds of 5.0, then came right in to around 1.03 before drifting again, then coming back in. Must’ve been a real back-and-forth battle, which ended in a photo finish – tension! When the market reopened Seventh Sign was around 1.4 favourite during the steward’s enquiry, and was declared the winner.

Profit after 2 bets, net of commission: £1.46

Backing Seventh Sign in the 12:50 at Newbury @ 2.82

Second bet is a horse racing one, on the favourite in the 12:50 at Newbury. Of all sports I am especially terrible at picking winners at the gee-gees, so I’ll be most amused if this one comes in.

Tuesday 15 January 2013

Backing Under 1.5 Goals (Bahrain v Iraq) @ 2.9

First bet is Under 1.5 Goals, placed in-play with one goal already on the board. The bet promptly loses when a second goal is scored 10 minutes later. Hmm. Should I exclude in-play markets?

Reducing the World’s Most Sophisticated Betting Market to a Fruit Machine

Welcome! I’m Russ. I’m a software developer and former Betfair employee who writes silly exchange bots for amusement and the vague hope of riches. Vague, that is, because the chances of my stumbling upon an automated ‘system’ that sucks money out of Betfair in sufficient quantities for me to retire, fat and idle, is about equal to that of a lottery player picking numbers based on their cat’s birthday and actually hitting the jackpot. Could happen, but won’t.

Of course, most of the country realised the lack of causative effect of feline birthing rates on lottery draws some time ago, which is why the whole Lucky Dip method of selecting numbers is so popular these days.

Random selection isn’t just fun for the lottery, though. Orlando the cat managed to make a profit on the stock market by heaving a toy mouse about the place, and Darius has been enriching his life recently with random purchases from Amazon. Why not apply the Lucky Dip approach to my exchange betting? Can’t do any worse than my other systems!

So, I wrote A Random Walk Down Betfair (with apologies to Burton G. Malkiel), which will randomly select a market from Betfair on an event happening in the next day or so, perform some simple liquidity and price-spread checks, and all being well place a small £2 back bet on a randomly-selected runner. All of that wonderful information available about traded volume, market depth, amount available, and so on? I’m ignoring the lot, and turning Bert’s invention into an insert-coin-and-pull-lever one-armed bandit.

Starting today, I will run the bot at irregular intervals (i.e. when I remember to) until it places a bet, and I will post the selections here along with a few witty comments and profit/loss updates. I’ll let it spend about £20 a month maximum, plus any winnings it might have, and maybe it will spark a new interest for me in Over/Under 4.5 Goals markets in the Bulgarian 2nd division.

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